Manchester United 2024/25 Season: What Went Wrong? (Deep Dive Analysis)
Эпизод 1: Intro: Welcome to Devil's Roundup!
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[Music]
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Hello there and welcome to Devil's Roundup Podcast's first episode. We're Abby and Luke. We're incredibly excited to launch this podcast. Yeah. Which is
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all about diving deep into the world of Manchester United. And what a season it's been for us. Today we're taking a
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well a really deep dive into our let's say tumultuous 2024 2025 season.
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Definitely tumultuous. Yeah. We're not just looking at the surface stuff, the results everyone knows about. We're really zeroing in on Ruben Amarum's
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performance. Sure. But maybe more importantly those uh those profound underlying issues that really plagued our team. Yeah. The stuff under the
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hood. Exactly. It was challenging to put it mildly. So we need to unpack what really went wrong. You know, let's do it. Where do you want to start? The league, I guess. Yeah. Let's start with
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the hard numbers, the ones that still sting a bit. This past Premier League season, well, our team finished 15th.
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Dismal, really. O. Yeah. That's our lowest finish in the modern era,
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basically since the Premier League started back in '92. We only managed 42 points. 42. That's also a record low for us in the Prem, isn't it? Right. It is.
Эпизод 2: Analysing the League Performance
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Honestly, when you see those figures laid out, it's just stark. painful reminder of how far we seem to have fallen and the scale of the challenge
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ahead. It's been tough to watch as a fan. Definitely a really tough pill to swallow. Absolutely. And just to add a bit more context to that, you know, the season saw that managerial change up,
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which kind of tells its own story about instability, doesn't it? It does. Eric Tenhag, who let's not forget won the FA Cup the season before, he was dismissed in October after that poor start. Yep.
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felt quite sudden at the time even if results weren't great. Then Rude Vanistoy stepped in as inim did his best you know tried to steady the ship legend
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but yeah always felt like a temporary fix. Exactly. Just a stop gap before Ruben Amaran was appointed permanently in November. So if you look at the whole
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league campaign both managers included only 44 goals scored. 44. Wow. And we conceded 54. Now digging into some of
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the like the deeper defensive numbers there was a slight suggestion of improvement in say preventing really high quality shots. Okay. So, not all
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bad on that front. Not all bad. Maybe we weren't letting teams just walk through us quite as easily sometimes, but and
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it's a big butt. Overall, our defensive performance just wasn't solid enough,
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right? And those little glimmers were totally overshadowed by the big glaring issues. The real problems were painfully obvious, weren't they? A real lack of
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killer instinct upfront. Oh, tell me about it. The missed chances. So many big chances missed. And then that
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recurring defensive vulnerability, set pieces, individual errors, opponents just seem to know how to exploit it.
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Felt like we were constantly shooting ourselves in the foot every week pretty much. Which makes you wonder, doesn't it? Because Ruben Emmer, he came in with
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this really impressive reputation from Sporting CP, two league titles there, broke a long drought for them. Yeah.
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Fantastic record. You'd think that kind of pedigree, that ability to build a winning team would, you know, make an immediate impact. But then you look at
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his six months with us. Was it six wins in 25 league games? Exactly. Only six wins in 25. And understandably that led
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to a lot of fan frustration. You see those raw numbers and it's easy to point fingers. Of course. So it begs the question, was it really amarium or was
Эпизод 3: Deep Dive into tactical Issues
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something else? Something deeper going on. Well, see that's the surface level,
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isn't it? And what's so fascinating when you actually deep dive into the data is that the problems they seem to run much
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deeper than just the manager or at least deeper than just his tactical approach.
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Okay, go on. If you connect this to the bigger picture, right, it becomes super clear when you look at our performance after the March international break,
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right? That final stretch. Yeah. Now,
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despite what most people watching would probably agree was visibly improved play on the pitch, we seemed to control games
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more, created more chances, looked a bit more coherent. I remember thinking that.
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Yeah, looked better. But but we failed to get a single win in that whole crucial period. We picked up what? Two points from a possible 21. Two points
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from seven games. Wow. Exactly. And this is where it gets really interesting, maybe even a bit of a revelation.
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During that same run, we massively underperformed our expected points.
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Okay, explain expected points quickly for anyone not familiar. Right. So,
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expected points or XP, it's a stat model that basically estimates how many points a team should have got based on the
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quality of chances they created versus the chances they gave away. So based on how we actually played, based on the chances in those games, yeah, this disco
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model suggested we should have earned significantly more points than the miserable two we actually banked, right?
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So the performance level according to the stats was better than the results showed. Much better. And it doesn't stop there. In that same period, we scored
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just five goals. Five goals in seven games from an expected goals xG of over 10. Over 10. So we should have scored double what we actually did pretty much.
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Again, just to clarify, XG quickly, it measures how likely any given shot is to be a goal based on stuff like where you
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shot from, what body part defenders in the way, all that. Gotcha. So, the quality of our chances was,
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statistically speaking, worth more than 10 goals. We only scored five. That gap is massive. It's absolutely crucial because it points away from the tactics
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creating the chances. Exactly. It fundamentally suggests a massive finishing problem among the players, an
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execution problem, not a tactical flaw in Amarim's system, which was clearly demonstrabably creating good chances.
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That's a really powerful distinction,
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isn't it? And it makes you think, you compare this to Eric Tenhog's last full season, the 23 24 season. Yeah. Yeah.
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Where we actually overperformed our expected points by like 15 points. We finished eighth, but the underlying stats apparently suggested we played more like a 15th place team that year.
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That's right. A huge overperformance,
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luck, maybe clinical finishing that season, goalkeeping, heroics, probably mix. So, it flips the script completely.
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Last season, maybe lucky to finish eighth. This season, maybe unlucky not to finish higher than 15th despite the terrible position. In terms of performance levels versus results, yeah,
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that's what the underlying numbers suggest for that final stretch under Em.
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It really forces you to ask is the main issue right now the coaching or is it something else something
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fundamental in the club structure the squad's quality the squad's makeup it felt like a season where yeah everything that could go wrong in front of goal
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just did especially in that runin precisely yeah and this is so vital these are overwhelmingly identified as
Эпизод 4: Exploring Recruitment and Squad Cohesion
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execution problems not tactical ones right am system whatever you think of the finer points it was creating scoring
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opportunities, decent ones based on the xG. The players were just, you know,
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failing to convert them. And you saw it with your own eyes, too, didn't you? Oh,
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absolutely. Think about it. Goalkeeping errors leading directly to goals conceded. Yep. Conceding from set pieces again and again, often down to just
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lapses in concentration or individual marking errors. And just that, that stream of clear-cut chances missed by
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key players week after week. a striker one-on-one hitting it straight at the keeper, a winger blazing over from six
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yards. It was heartbreaking. Yeah. The sheer volume and sort of consistency of those individual mistakes, it points away from the overall tactical plan. It
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wasn't that we weren't getting into dangerous areas or creating good openings. It was that when we did, that final action, that crucial decision or
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finish was just lacking so often. Which brings us neatly or maybe messily onto recruitment, doesn't it? Oh, here we go.
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the tangled mess, as you might call it,
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because this ties directly into it. How can players execute consistently if the squad itself isn't built coherently?
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Explain that connection more. Well, our squad, let's be honest, it's been assembled poorly over many, many, it's been done in fits and starts, different managers, different ideas. Exactly.
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Imagine trying to build, I don't know, a high performance race car, but you buy engine parts designed for a massive SUV,
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a gearbox from a city runaround, and wheels meant for off-roading. They might all be good parts on their own. Exactly.
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Quality parts in isolation maybe, but they just don't fit together to create a consistent high-erforming machine with a
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clear identity. That's kind of what our squad feels like. A collection of individuals rather than a team sometimes. Yeah. Yeah. It leads to this
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fundamental lack of cohesion. Players maybe not perfectly suited for a consistent playing style because they were signed for a different manager with
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a totally different philosophy. So one manager wants high press, buys players for that. Next one wants slow buildup,
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buys different types. Precisely. Some wanted counterattack, others possession.
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The players brought in reflected those sort of temporary managerial preferences, not necessarily a long-term club vision. And the result is what we
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see. A disjointed group, lack of natural understanding on the pitch. Players may be asked to do jobs that don't quite suit their best attributes. That's the
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argument. Yeah, it makes consistent execution much much harder. So, it's not just about signing bad players then.
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It's about a deeper, more foundational flaw in how we link player recruitment to a coaching philosophy or maybe the lack of a consistent philosophy. Yeah,
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it feels like it perpetuates this cycle of underperformance. You get a new manager, they try to impose their style, maybe some players fit, others don't.
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Results stutter, pressure builds, and round we go again. Exactly. which really underlines the need for a fundamental shift, doesn't it? A proper policy
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change in recruitment for us. What does that look like? It means ideally having a clear long-term club vision for how we
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want to play. A DNA if you like. And that vision needs to transcend whoever the manager is in any given moment. So,
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every signing fits that bigger picture.
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Every signing serves a specific cohesive purpose within that defined playing philosophy. You're recruiting players for the club, for our style, not just
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for the manager who happens to be there for the next two or three years. That's the ideal anyway. Makes sense. Easier said than done, probably. Much easier
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said than done, but arguably essential if we want to break this cycle. Okay.
Эпизод 5: Cup Runs and Missed Opportunities
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So, beyond the league struggles, which painted that pretty bleak picture, we did have the cup runs, they offered maybe glimpses of hope, or did they just mirror the same problems? A bit of both.
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I think they definitely mirror the same execution problems and underlying issues we saw in the league even when we got
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results. Right. So the FA Cup defending champs. Yeah. That ended in the fifth round. Lost a full amount of penalties after a draw. We did show flashes beat Arsenal and Leicester earlier on. Okay.
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Some decent wins there. Yeah. But ultimately against decent Premier League opposition again, those same old vulnerabilities popped up. defensive
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errors and crucially missed chances that could have won the game before penalties.
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It felt familiar and the EFL Cup reached the quarterfinals there. Had a couple of really big wins against lower league teams. Remember that 7-0il against
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Barnsley? Yeah. And smashed Leicester 52. Looked good then. We did. But then we went away to Spurs in the quarters and lost 4-3.
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Thrilling game back and forth. But ultimately another loss. Ultimately another loss. Again, fine margins. Maybe a bit more composure needed, maybe one
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less individual mistake and the outcome could have been different. Same old story really. So that left the Europa League as the last shot at silverware
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and crucially European football for next season. Yep. Our final kind of desperate hope. Yeah. And we actually reached the final of that when we navigated some
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really tough knockout ties. Showed some real grit. Who should we beat? Had impressive aggregate wins against real soiad. Then Leon that was a crazy tie.
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won 76 after extra time in the quarters.
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Wow. 76. Yeah. Mental game. And then we were pretty dominant against Athletic Bill Bao in the semis. Won 71 on aggregate. Okay. So those results 76.
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71. They show the potential is there right to create chances, score goals when it clicks. Absolutely. Demonstrated the potential within the squad. The
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ability to overwhelm teams when things actually click. There's always a butt this season, isn't there? Just our European dream ended in the final May
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21st, 2025 in Bill Bao. lost one nil to Spurs again. One nil. Another tight game
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decided by a single goal. And again, you look back at the chances in that final and it underlines that same crucial finishing issue when the pressure was
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highest. So, no European football for us for 2025, 2026. That's a massive blow,
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isn't it? Financially, prestige, huge blow financially, prestige wise,
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attracting players, giving current players top level competition. Yeah, it's just a massive missed opportunity.
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And didn't we have some postseason friendlies straight after that? Bit weird. Yeah, a short tour in Asia right
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at the end of May. Lost 1 nil to an Azon Allstars team, which was a surprise to say the least. Oh dear. But then beat Hong Kong 3-1 a couple of days later.
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Cheeto Obie Martin got a couple. Aiden Heaven scored two. Young Lad's getting a chance. Okay, so a very early start to what feels like a massively crucial
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summer. You could say that. Frame it as hitting the ground running for next season, I suppose. Okay. So, looking back at all of that, the league disaster, the cup near misses, the
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underlying numbers, what does this tell us about Ruben Amarum's place in all this? When you pull it all together, is he part of the problem or actually part
Эпизод 6: Ruben Amorim: The Solution or the Problem?
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of the solution? Right? And if we connect this back to the bigger picture,
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bring all these threads together, I think the core conclusion you have to reach looking at the evidence is that Ruben Amar himself isn't the problem.
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He's much more likely a potential maybe even vital part of the solution for us moving forward despite the results.
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Despite the raw results. Yeah. Because he inherited a situation a real tangled mess frankly that would have challenged
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any manager coming in no matter their track record. Yeah. The data especially that really stark xG underperformance in
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the final months. It points so clearly towards execution finishing and squad cohesion issues. not a fundamental lack
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of tactical planning from him. And that feels like the crucial takeaway for us as fans. Maybe he needs time. He needs time definitely. He needs a full
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preseason, a proper chance to drill his system, imprint his philosophy without the pressure of games every 3 days and players. And he needs the opportunity to
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reshape the squad with players who actually fit his vision. Players who can execute consistently within his tactical framework. But maybe even more than that. What? He needs proper, unwavering,
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consistent support from the club hierarchy. Right. Not just money for transfers, but actual backing. Exactly. It's not just about the transfer budget.
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It's about patience, showing genuine commitment to his long-term plan, even if results fluctuate initially. It's about empowering him and his staff to
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make the necessary, sometimes difficult decisions on players, who stays, who goes, who comes in because the underlying problems go way beyond him.
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Way beyond him. Our systemic problems.
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you know, that history of maybe not consistently backing managers long term,
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the questionable recruitment strategies that left us with this disjointed squad,
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the lack of that single clear overarching club vision. Yeah, these are deep-seated issues. They predate Amarim by years, maybe decades. It's a legacy
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of short-term fixes, chasing immediate results. Maybe we've seen managers come and go, haven't we? Each with their own ideas. But without that unifying club
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identity or player profile guiding recruitment, we just keep layering slightly mismatched parts onto the same struggling machine. Ammer has shown
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statistically at least he can set up a team to create chances. He has a system.
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Now the club needs to back him to get players who can execute it reliably and stick with it and stick with it.
Эпизод 7: Addressing Systemic Issues for Future Success
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Maintain that support through the inevitable rough patches that always come in football. So wrapping this up then, what does this all mean for us,
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the fans, and for the club as we head into next season? This deep dive seems to show the issues aren't just on the pitch or the training ground. They're embedded right in the club's structure,
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its history. Seems that way. So the ultimate question really is, are we as a whole club from the very top down to the
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foundations, are we finally ready to actually address these deep-seated systemic problems? Are we prepared to give the manager the sustained support,
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the structural backing, the coherent recruitment strategy he needs to actually succeed? That's the million-dollar question, isn't it? Or
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will we just repeat the cycle? Blame the manager when things get tough, demand quick fixes, and avoid tackling the harder structural changes. It feels like
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we're at a crossroads. Will we commit to a genuine long-term vision this time?
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Build something cohesive. We have to hope so. Yeah, it's definitely something for all of us to think about as we look towards next season. Hoping for a fresh
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start, obviously, but knowing that real lasting change needs more than just hope. It needs fundamental commitment
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from everyone involved. Well said. A huge summer ahead. Okay, folks. If you enjoyed the show, be sure to subscribe
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be back next Friday with another episode of Devil's Roundup. Thanks for listening and see you